[institut] [phys4phys] SCL online seminar: Marija Mitrovic Dankulov, Thursday, 24 March, 14:00

[Antun Balaz]

Dear colleagues,

You are cordially invited to the SCL online seminar of the Center for the Study of Complex Systems, which will be held on Thursday, 24 March 2022 at 14:00 on Zoom (link is given below). The talk entitled

Universal patterns of multiscale stochastic processes in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

will be given by Dr. Marija Mitrović Dankulov (Scientific Computing Laboratory, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, Institute of Physics Belgrade). Abstract of the talk:

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has influenced every aspect of our lives in the previous two years. The course of an epidemic in one country depends on many factors, including different epidemic measures. The epidemic measures taken varied from country to country and during the epidemic. Apart from the measures themselves, the evolution of the epidemic depends significantly on different underlying stochastic processes. Understanding the global nature of these processes and how they, combined with different measures, influence the course of epidemics is crucial for predicting its evolution. In this talk, we will present the analysis [1] of the world data of SARS-CoV-2 infection events for two distinct periods during the epidemic: the first eight months of the outbreak phase and the first eight months of the immunization phase. Using methods from time series analysis and complex network theory, we will analyze the global features of mentioned stochastic processes. Our results reveal the robust communities of different countries and regions clustered according to similar shapes of infection fluctuations - the content of communities differs for two different phases of the epidemic. Further, examination of the communities reveals the appearance of large clusters that span different geographic locations, suggesting that regional similarities are not the only driver of the evolution of the epidemic. Detailed time series analysis reveals cyclic trends and that persistent fluctuations around the local trend occur in intervals smaller than 14 days. Our results provide the basis for further research into the interplay between biological and social factors that are the primary cause of epidemic infection cycles.

[1] M. Mitrović Dankulov, B. Tadić, R. Melnik, medRxiv:2021.12.20.21268095 (2021).

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Time: Mar 24, 2022 14:00 Belgrade
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87850662165?pwd=VHlxYnk3a2tJMjdKVDgzRHdqK3VHQT09

Meeting ID: 878 5066 2165
Passcode: 569569
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Best regards,
Antun Balaž

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Dr. Antun Balaž
Research Professor

http://www.scl.rs/antun
Phone: +381 11 3713152
Fax: +381 11 3162190

Scientific Computing Laboratory
Center for the Study of Complex Systems

Institute of Physics Belgrade
National Institute of the Republic of Serbia
Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia
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